河北省粮棉供需状况研究与走势预测

Current status and forecast of supply-demand relation of grain and cotton in Hebei province

对占河北省农作物总播种面积60%以上的小麦、玉米、棉花三种主要农产品供需状况进行了回顾和分析,根据傅立叶级数理论对未来粮棉产销状况进行了初步预测,在此基础上,提出了确保粮棉安全必须把握的两个基本点,即合理的农作物种植比例及粮棉储备数量。

This paper analyses the supply and demand status of wheat,corn and cotton, which cover above 60% total crop area, in Hebei province since 1990s. Moreover, by using the Fourier progression theory, it makes an elementary forecast on the future output and consumption status of each variety. The reasonable crop planting proportion and the proper storage amounts of grain and cotton are also proposed.