青少儿身高的长期变化与生长速度曲线对预测身高的影响

Effects of Teenagers' Secular Growth Change and Curve of Growth Veloc-ity on Height Prediction

从1955年到2000年10次的调研结果来看,上海市青少儿身高发育持续地保持着长期加速趋势。最近身高增加速率有减缓的趋势。男生身高的突增期由1979年12-13岁提前到2000年11-12岁,女生由1979年11-12岁提前到1985年10-12岁,还对2005年和2010年上海市青少儿未来身高进行回归预测,预测数值大概相当于在2000年全国第75-80百分位水平。

According to 10 investigations from 1955-2000, the height growth of the teenagers inShanghai kept speeding up secularly. But it tends to go slower in the recent years. The height sudden-increase period for boys in 1979 was at the ages of 12-13, but 11-12 in 2000. For girls, 11-12 in 1979,and 10-12 in 1985. The article also predicts the future height of the teenagers in Shanghai between theyears of 2005-2010. It will be probably between 75% to 80% as compared with the result in China in2000.