物元理论在危岩滑坡灾害社会经济易损性评价中的应用

Application of matter-element theory on the community vulnerability assessment of dangerous rockmass and landslide hazard

文章分析了物元概念的可拓性。以万州为例,应用物元理论分析说明危岩、滑坡灾害的社会经济易损性具有发散性、可扩性、相关性和共扼性特点。进行区域易损性评价的基本目标是获取各种易损性参数,为滑坡灾害破坏损失评价提供基本资料。根据万州50a来的灾害统计资料,选取了灾害密度、灾害频数、经济(GDP)损失模数、生命损失模数等易损性评价指标,对该区的脆弱性和易损强度进行了综合评估,计算出其易损度。根据这些数据,提出用物元可拓集理论构造各易损程度指标等级标准的物元矩阵和待识别对象与各指标的关联度,根据关联度大小判断综合易损度(CVD)与计算结果相符合。最后提出减灾工作应在传统理论研究的基础上,应用物元理论采用可拓学方法,提出区域易损性分析、评估的简单思路,以期为滑坡区域防灾、减灾规划提供新的理论和方法依据。

First, the extension nature of matter-element concepts is analyzed simply in this paper. According to matter-element theory, the vulnerability of landslide hazard in Wanzhou is used as a typical example, at the same time, the vulnerability is of divergence, extension, interrelation and conjugation, which are typical characters of matter-element model. And the basic aim of vulnerability evaluation in the landslide disaster is to get various parameters of damage susceptibility to provide basic data for the evaluation of failure loss in landslide hazard. Therefore, according to the landslide hazard statistical data of past 50 years in Wanzhou, the authors select disaster density, disaster frequency, economic loss rate and population exposed to disasters as vulnerability evaluation indexes, then make a comprehensive evaluation of the weakness and calculate the valunerability degree of the district. Based on the data, the approach is proposed to construct the class standard of the vulnerability evaluation indexes, the cognate degrees between the body to be recognized and the various indexes and the coincidence between the CVD and the result according to the magnitude of cognate degree are calculated. At last, based on these special characters, the authors propose that extenics should be used in the vulnerability of landslide hazard control in Wanzhou besides the traditional ways, and a simple thought for regional vulnerability analysis and evaluation is developed, which provides the theoretical and methodological basis for planning preventing and controlling of regional landslide disaster.