我国通货膨胀名义成因和实际成因的检验分析

Nominal and Real Causes of Inflation in China's Economy

货币供给扩张是导致通货膨胀的名义因素,总需求和总供给扩张是导致通货膨胀的实 际因素。通过统计检验,我们发现,货币供给增长率和通货膨胀率之间不存在显著的协整关系,但 消费需求增长率对通货膨胀率具有显著的Granger影响,这说明我国价格水平变化具有名义需求和 实际需求的双重驱动迹象。因此抑制通货膨胀时,控制名义因素效果比较明显,而治理通货紧缩 时,实际因素扩张的作用则更为显著。

The increase in money supply is the nominal cause of inflation. The expansions in aggregate supply and demand is the real cause of inflation. By using the econometric models and testing, we find that there is no significant co integration relationship between money supply rate and inflation, but the consumption demand rate has evident influence on inflation. Therefore, controlling the nominal expansion is more effective in curbing inflation, but if we want to prevent the economy from deflation, the policy of real expansion is preferred.