摘要
年电力负荷具有稳定增长的趋势成分和随机成分。由灰色模型描述趋势成分,由自回归模型刻化随机成分,两者叠加,即灰色随机组合模型,可反映年电力负荷的变化特性。实例验证表明,该途径是可行而有效的。
Annual electricity load includes some steady increase trend components and some stochastic components . The gray model can describe the trend components and the autoregressive model can reflect the stochastic components . The two models are combined to form the gray stochastic model which can reflects variation of annual electricity load . The prediction results show that the combined model is feasible and effective.
出处
《四川水力发电》
2004年第3期79-80,83,共3页
Sichuan Hydropower
关键词
灰色模型
白回归模型
组合模型
年电力负荷
预测
gray model
autoregressive model
combined model
annual electricity load
prediction
