病险土石坝渗流量的灰色预报

Grey system prediction to seepage quantity of dangerous soil rock dam

在土石坝渗流量监测统计数据的基础上,利用灰色系统理论,以若干实测渗流量为基础数据构成原始数列,用累加算子弱化个体差异。在累加序列生成的基础上求出紧邻生成序列,构建GM(1,1)灰色微分方程,求解微分方程的响应函数并还原出模拟函数。经精度验证或修正后,模拟并预测渗流量,为病险土石坝的防治提供依据。

Base on some monitoring data of seepage quantity of the soil rock dam, the original sequence is formed in the grey system, and the difference is weakened by the accumulating generation operator. The mean sequence is generated with the accumulation generation sequence, and the model GM(1,1) grey differential equation is constructed. Then, the response function of the model GM (1,1) is solved, and the simulation function is derived.Through the precision testing and correcting, the seepage quantity is simulated and predicted by the simulation function which is the basis to reinforce the dangerous soil rock dam.