四川大于6.5级强震危险性探讨

Discussion on the strong earthquake M≥6.0 risk in Sichuan Province

系统地研究了四川≥6 5级强震活动情况。总结了强震活动时间上的起伏变化及空间分布的某些特点,探讨了当前及今后一段时间四川所处的强震活动背景及危险性。通过对强震活动背景、主要带、段及相关区域强震趋势分析,认为当前及今后一段时间四川仍可能处于强震的弱活动时期,即一般情况下,发生≥6 5级强震可能性较小或发震的频度较低。

The seismicity situation with magnitude M≥6.0 in Sichuan Province is discussed systemically.The seismicity situation of the mediate earthquake in Sichuan province nowadays is in the low or weak period.The probability of strong earthquake is low.The seismic distribution mainly focuses on the Ganzi-kangding,Songpan-Pingwu and Mianning-Xichang belts.