时间序列法在供水量预测模型建立中的应用

The Time Series Analysis in the Construction of Water Supply Prediction Model

根据某市自来水公司 1978— 2 0 0 3年逐年的供水量 ,给出了时间序列供水量预测模型建立的 3种方法 ,即直线趋势模型、二次曲线模型和指数平滑模型 .利用模型预测了 2 0 0 4年的供水量 .

On the basis of the data of the successive annual water supplies through the years 1978~2003 by a municipal water supply company,three models of time series water supply prediction are constructed,i.e.the straight-line-trended model,the conic section model,and the exponential smoothing model.The annual water supply volume of the year 2004 was predicted with the models.These models provide a quantitative decision-making method for the prediction of annual water supply.