基于AHP的空调负荷组合预测研究

Combined forecasting for air-conditioning load with analytic hierarchy process

为提高建筑空调负荷预测的有效性,应用组合预测方法,将目前常用的几个空调负荷预测模型有机地结合起来,并引入层次分析法(AHP),建立了空调负荷组合预测的结构模型.利用AHP的1～9标度,根据实际情况计算了各单预测模型在组合预测中的权重系数.实例分析表明,基于AHP的空调负荷组合预测模型在预测准确性和适应性方面均能得到一定改善,能很好地对建筑空调负荷进行科学、有效地预测.

In order to improve the validity of forecasting the air-conditioning load, a method of combination is employed to combine several typical forecasting models into a better one. The weights of each model in the combination are calculated with the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on the actual situations. The case study shows that the model put forward in this paper may be better than the other separate ones in terms of accuracy and adaptability and the model can forecast the building's air-conditioning load scientifically and effectively.