水利工程风险量化问题的探讨

Approach to Quantification of Hydraulic Structure Risks

水利工程建设中潜藏着众多风险,对风险进行有效管理是工程顺利建设的重要保证。水利工程风险管理是由风险辨识、估计、评价、控制四部分组成的科学体系,该体系中关键问题是风险的合理量化,多采用专家调查和打分法、AHP法等计算风险权值,再根据风险等级采取相应控制措施以减小项目风险损失。在万家寨水利枢纽工程施工末期业主风险管理研究中,应用该评价体系对业主面临的风险进行合理量化及有效的控制研究,促进了工程建设的顺利进行。

There are numerous latent risks in the construction of hydraulic engineering works. Effective management of risk is an important guarantee for smooth construction of the project. Risk management of hydraulic engineering works is a scientific system, consisting of four components of risk identification, estimation, evaluation and control. The key issue of the system is rational quantification, which the weight value is calculated usually by the methods of investigation, giving marks and AHP and then adopts relevant measures for reducing the lost according to the grade of risk. In the study of owner risk management in the later stage construction of Wanjiazhai Key Water Control Project, the owner faced risks have been rationally quantified and effectively controlled and studied by using the evaluation system, which has promoted successive construction of the project.