气候变化与气象灾害

CLIMATE CHANGE AND METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS

回顾了国际上气候变暖背景下极端天气和气候事件研究的基本成果,重点讨论了我国旱灾、暴雨洪灾、高温热浪、霜冻、低温冷害和沙尘暴等气象灾害的变化特点。指出:在过去50多年气候明显变暖的背景下,华北、西北东部和东北东部随着降水量的减少,降水日数也显著减少,干旱化倾向十分明显;长江流域的强降水过程明显趋于增多,发生洪涝灾害的频率也趋于增加。气候变暖最显著的影响之一是无霜期显著增加。虽然在过去50多年中我国沙尘暴发生频率和范围总体趋于减少,但由于持续干旱的影响,使得1998年以来又出现沙尘暴增加的势头。

Based on review of research results in changes in climate extremes under the background of global warming in the world, this paper summarizes climate change in China's major meteorological disasters which are closely related to climate extremes. It is indicated that in eastern Northeast China, North China, eastern Northwest China, precipitation totals and frequency have decreased at the same time, and drought has become more serious. In the Yangtze River valley, however, flood opportunities have increased due to the increase of intense precipitation events. One of the most significant changes in disasters is due to reduction of frost days. Though frequency in duststorms in China shows a decrease trend, it has increased recently mainly due to the impact of persistent drought in northern China since 1998.