我国动力气候模式预测系统的研制及应用

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF DYNAMIC CLIMATE MODEL PREDICTION SYSTEM IN CHINA

动力气候模式是目前国际上开展气候预测的主要工具。经过8年多的研制和发展,国家气候中心已建立起第一代动力气候模式预测业务系统,并以此为平台,形成了一套包括月、季节到年际时间尺度的模式预测业务。20年历史回报试验和1年多的试验性业务运行结果表明,该系统对东亚区域的季节预测具有较好的预测能力,其预测结果已经成为我国短期气候预测业务的重要参考信息。

Dynamical climate model is a dominating tool for climate prediction in the world at present.After more than8year's researching and developing,the first generation of dynamical climate model prediction operation system has been established in National Climate Center(NCC),Chinese Meteorological Administration.And on the basis of this system,a series of short term climate prediction produced by dynamical climate model at timescale of monthly,seasonal and interannual has been launched into operation.It is shown by the results from20-year-hindcasting experiments and experimental routine operation of short term climate prediction since last spring that this system has the reasonable capability of seasonal prediction in East Asia and its products has been becoming an important reference in the NCC' operation of short term climate prediction.