中国带壳鸡蛋中沙门氏菌定量危险性评估的初步研究——Ⅰ.危害识别与暴露评估

The modeling of quantitative risk assessment on Salmonella in shell eggs in China Part Ⅰ: Hazard identification and exposure assessment

为控制由食用鸡蛋而导致的沙门氏菌食物中毒 ,利用中国的资料与信息建立了带壳鲜鸡蛋沙门氏菌定量危险性评估模型 ,对中国带壳鲜鸡蛋的沙门氏菌污染情况进行定量评估。模型计算每年以带壳鲜蛋形式被消费的带染鸡蛋数量平均为 2 5× 10 8(5 th～ 95 th百分位点值 :1 9× 10 6～1 1× 10 9)个 ,消费前每个污染鸡蛋中的沙门氏菌菌量平均 70CFU(5 th～ 95 th百分位点值 :14CFU与172CFU) ,该定量危险性评估的框架为中国每年沙门氏菌病暴发的危险性提供了评估依据。

Based on the data obtained from surveys in China,a computative model was developed for the quantitative assessment of the risk of an epidemic. The model was used to assess the risk of Salmonella infection caused by consumption of contaminated shell eggs. The exposure assessment estimates the number of eggs that are internally contaminated with Salmonella and the change in numbers of Salmonella organisms in eggs through storage and transportation. The model simulates an average production of 250 million shell eggs in China per year which contain Salmonella and an average quantity of contamination 70 CFU per contaminated egg. The results became the base for assessing the potential risk for the occurrence of an epidemic of Salmonella infection. Furthermore,the farm-to-table approach provides a framework for developing similar risk assessment methods for other pathogen-product pairs.