基于模糊层次分析法的风险量化研究

Research on risk analysis based on fuzzy AHP method

针对当前风险量化方法的不足,提出一种结合三角模糊数和层次分析法对风险进行量化的方法。该方法用三角模糊数来表征专家判断信息,用层次分析法来对专家判断结果进行处理,从而实现了风险因素按风险发生概率、风险损失,以及综合考虑风险发生概率和风险损失的重要度排序。最后,对航空项目的风险量化进行了分析,并结合某航空型号项目,介绍了应用基于模糊层次分析法的风险量化方法对项目进行风险量化的一般步骤,并同时校验了其合理性和可用性。

To improve the existing risk analysis method, a new risk analysis method was proposed to evaluate risk based on the triangular fuzzy number and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). This method introduced the triangular fuzzy number to represent experts' judgment information of risk factors and used the AHP to rank these risk factors. So, the detailed ranking of project's risk factors by risk probability, risk loss and both of them was obtained. Finally, the risk analysis of aviation project was discussed and an aviation project was introduced as an example to demonstrate the process and validity of the method. The general steps of the method applied to the example were detailed.