长大干线铁路客运量预测方法研究

A Passenger Demand Forecast for Great Railway Corridor Lines

针对传统四阶段法不太适合长大铁路干线需求预测的实际,通过对四阶段需求预测方法及各种模型的改造,建立了一套适合我国铁路项目客运量预测的预测方法和程序。通过对京沪高速铁路的具体应用,论文就参数标定方法和应注意的问题提出了一些研究结论。

Considering the practical inapplicability of traditional four-stage transportation planning method on great railway lines, this paper analyses the characteristics of the railway corridor and reconstructs a serious of models to predict passenger transport demand of railway based on the background of the Beijing-Shanghai high speed railway. Some practical application results have been given to demonstrate their applicability. The paper also advances some conclusions in calibrating and validating parameters related to above models.