黑龙江省卫生人力资源供需发展研究

Study on supply and demand development for health manpower resources in Heilongjiang

目的 探求黑龙江省卫生人力资源的特点及目标年 (2 0 12年 )卫生人力的供需状况 ,为政府决策部门制定卫生人力发展规划及医学教育发展规划提供科学的佐证。方法 WHO推荐的卫生资源需要量测算方法中的有效需求法及年龄移算方法 ,利用 1998年国家卫生服务总调查有关数据 ,对黑龙江省 2 0 12年卫生人力供需状况进行长期预测。结果 2 0 12年黑龙江省卫技人员总需求量预测值为 18 85万人 ,实际拥有量预测值为 2 3 2 5万人。结论 黑龙江省卫生人力的特点是拥有量大、质量低、分布不平衡。在其他影响因素不变的情况下 ,按照现在医学院校毕业生每年的增长速度 ,预测到 2 0 12年卫技人员的供给将大于需求。

Objective To search characteristics for health manpower resources of Heilongjiang province and project situation of supply and demand about health manpower in 2012.To provide scientific evidence for developing plan in health manpower and medical education enacted by decision-making of government.Methods Efficiency demand and age shift calculating approach which belong to calculating method of health resources requirement recommended by WHO are adopted.Total investigation data for national health service in 1998 are used and predicted situation for supply and demand of health manpower of Heilongjiang province in 2012.Results By 2012,total demand of health technical staffs will be 18.85 ten thousand people.Practical possession of health technical staffs will be 23.25 ten thousand people.Conclusion Large possession、low quality and unbalance distribution of health technical staffs is typical nature of health manpower in Heilongjiang province.It is forecasted that supply of health manpower will be exceeding demand according to rising speed annually graduated form medical university of Heilongjiang province while other influencing factors keeping invariability.