2型糖尿病高危人群的早期预测及其评价

Prediction and evaluation of population at high risk of 2 type diabetes mellitus

目的 采用巢式病例对照研究的方法 ,建立 2型糖尿病及糖耐量损害危险因素的Logistic回归模型。方法 用腰臀围比或腰围指标预测 2型糖尿病高危人群 ,并评价其效果。结果 以空腹血糖结果为标准 ,在小于 40岁人群中 ,灵敏度均为 10 0 % ,特异度分别为 80 0 %和 77 0 % ,约登指数为 0 80和 0 77,效果满意。在 40岁以上人群中 ,灵敏度为 52 0 %和 40 0 % ,特异度为 62 0 %和 70 0 % ,约登指数为 0 14和 0 10。效果不满意。按照目前推荐的腰臀围比与腰围评价标准 ,2项指标测量结果一致率为 85 0 %。结论 在小于 40岁人群中 ,通过常规体检或自身测量腰臀围比或腰围 ,筛检 2型糖尿病的高危人群 ,是一个简单、有效。

Objective Based on a nested case control study on the risk factors of type 2 diabetes and IFG,mathematical models for the risk factors of the disease were developed.MethodsWaist hip ratio or waistline was used for the predicting index of population at high risk of 2 type diabetes,and the effectiveness was evaluated.ResultsFor under the age of 40 years,the sensitivities w ere 100%.The specificities were 80% and 77% and Youden's index were 0.80 and 0.7 7,respectively.The effectiveness of over 40 years was lower than under the age o f 40.ConclusionWHR or waistline was a simple and effective pr edicting index for under 40 years of age.