肝癌发病时期趋势和年龄效应分析

Analysis of temporal trend and effect of age on primary liver cancer incidence

目的 反映启东地区肝癌发病的时期变化趋势和年龄作用方式。方法 应用年龄 -时期 -队列模型对启东地区 2 5年肝癌发病监测资料分区进行模型拟合和效应分析。结果 海东区和吕四区在局部时间上有所上升 ;汇龙区、江海区、王鲍区、启西区 2 0世纪 50年代以后出生的人群发病危险性有显著减缓或下降的趋势。结论 肝癌发病危险性在时期趋势上没有整体下降 ,2 0世纪

ObjectiveTo analyze temporal trends and effect of age on primary liver cancer (PLC) incidence in Qidong. MethodsAge-period-cohort models was used to analyze data of twenty five years PLC incidence in Qidong to delineate period,birth cohort a nd age effect.ResultsThere are some temporal period effects in Haidong and Lüsi districts;a significant moderation or decrease trends in incidence ri sk begin with cohort around 1958-1962. ConclusionThere was no descending trend of PLC incidence totally and the incidence risk of the birth cohorts after the 50's of the 20th century drop off.