基于净资产的证券投资价值评估模型

Appraisal Model on the Stock Investment Based on Net Assets

对证券的价值评估有多种模式,最经典的是现金流模型,但这种模式对很多企业不分红,而股票的价格仍在上升的状况却不能做出很好的解释。另一种是基于市盈率(P/E)预测的股票价值评估,其缺点是基于不断变化的股票价格,且不能反映上市公司的未来盈利能力。本文把股票价值评估用3个指标表示:每股净资产、每股净资产的增长率和投资回报率,并引入合理预期理论介绍股票价格的连续波动,最后通过实证检验了模型在证券市场的应用。该证券价值评估模式能更客观地反映股票投资价值,从而为证券投资活动中的价值判断提供借鉴。

There are many models to appraise the value of a stock, among which the dividend model is the most classical. However the dividend model couldn't explain the situation that the stock price of a company is rising without any dividend. Another model on stock value appraisal is based on Price/Earning Ratio (P/E), however this model is found on continuously changing stock price, and couldn't reflect the future profiting capability of the listed companies. In this paper, the stock value appraisal is expressed with three conceptions: Net assets per share of the stock, increasing rate of net assets per share of the stock and return on investment; a reasonable prospective theoretical model is introduced to provide information on the continuously wave of stock price; and the application of the model on stock market is verified by demonstration. The value appraisal model in this paper can reflect the investing value of stock more objectively, so as to provide references for value estimation in stock investment.