中国货币经济波动的一般均衡分析

An General Equilibrium Model of China's Monetary Economic Fluctuation

文章构建了一个动态随机一般均衡的模型,从理论和实证两个方面分析了中国货币经济的波动问题。实证结果表明我国经济中货币余额的波动更多地源于消费者货币需求的波动,投资的波动与货币余额的波动关联不大,因此不能简单地以货币余额的变化来判断投资的状况。投资波动、经济增长波动与消费波动存在背离现象,投资造成大量的成本,这是我国经济非均衡的主要表现。文章的结论支持当前的宏观经济调控政策。

This paper analyses China's monetary economic fluctuation theoretically and positively with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The conclusion is that the fluctuation of per capita real money is mainly resulted from the fluctuation of per capita real consumption, and the correlations between the fluctuation of per capita real money and that of per capita real investment is not strong.So we cannot judge the fluctuation of investment basing on that of monetary balancement. The fluctuation of investment and economic growth is not corresponding with that of consumption, and this makes investments expensive very much. All of that shows disequilibrium in China's economy. Our conclusion is supportive to the present macroeconomic policies .