中国区域经济发展差异收敛的非线性分形分析

A Non-linear Fractional Analysis of the Developing Evolution Convergence of the China's Regional Economic Diversities

中国区域经济发展差异收敛分析可利用非线性分形理论及其主要方法R S法的原理及模型 ,对中国 1 978～ 1 998年衡量区域经济发展差异收敛的时间序列变量指标进行了多维R S实证分析 ,得到了区域经济发展差异演变的赫斯特指数H值和分维D值。分析结果显示 ,我国区域经济发展差异的演化满足赫斯特 (Hurst)律 ,具有明显的分形特征 ,区域经济发展差异在其演变过程中具有明显的持续性规律 ,即区域经济发展差异没有呈现出收敛 (趋同 )而呈现发散 (趋异 )态势 。

Using the non-linear fractional theory and its main R/S methods and models of fractional analysis,and three dimension measuring index of regional economic developing diversities,this paper analyses the characteristics of the developing evolution of the China's regional and zone economic developing diversities in the year of 1978 to 1998,and gets the Hurst index values and fractal dimension values of the developing evolution of the China's regional economic developing convergence diversities. The outcome of the analysis shows that it suffices the Hurst principal,there are some obvious fractional characteristics in China's regional and zone economic developing diversities,some obvious persistence orderliness has found in its developing evolution process. That is, not convergence but divergences are the present situation and future trend of the regional economic developing diversities. The research conclusions are primitively the same as the practicalness of the developing evolution of China's regional economic developing diversities.