论邓小平的风险决策思想

Deng Xiao-ping Thought of Risk Decision-making

由于信息的不完全性、抽象思维的局限性、预测的不准确性、假定的不可靠性和实施者的差异性等不确定性因素的存在 ,决策往往与风险相伴随。邓小平所说的“摸着石头过河”是一种渐进决策的方式。他提出了风险决策的各个主要环节 :制定一切政策 ,要从实际出发 ;制定一个目标十分重要 ;大胆地试 ,大胆地闯 ;每走一步都要总结经验。邓小平认为评判决策有两个标准 。

Decision-making always goes together with risk, which owes to the following chief factors of uncertainty: incompleteness of information, limitedness in thought of abstraction, imprecision of prediction, unreliability of presumption and differentiations out of practice. As for decision-making, DENG Xiao-ping proposes the maxim ”Cross a river by groping the way upon the stones and pebbles”(gain experience from practice), which is a step-by-step strategy. But he also includes the main factors concerning risk decision-making, such as: to proceed from the practice whenever making decisions, to keep a clear mind of the importance of mapping out a plan, to have the spirit of daring attempts and explorations, and to sum up the experience by every step. And for the evaluation of decision-making, he recommends two criteria for us to follow, that is, the standard of Practice to test epistemological correctness and the value orientation ”all for the people”.