基于风险分析的流域防洪系统调度决策模型研究

Risk analysis-based decision-making model for operation of river basin flood control system

在已有成果的基础上,以长江流域为背景,将防洪系统联合调度模型和风险分析相结合,提出考虑入流洪水地区组成不确定性的防洪调度决策风险模型.该模型采用AR模型方法进行流量预报,对于预报误差,用一定置信水平下t分布估计误差的方差,从而求出流量过程误差的上下限,计算出未来发生的多种来水过程,为实时调度的贝叶斯决策和风险分析提供计算基础.在某联合调度方案下,可以进行风险分析计算,将一个复杂的随机调度决策问题转化为确定性调度决策问题.结果表明,该模型的计算工作量较一般随机生成模拟模型的计算工作量小得多,同时可以计算并保存可能大洪水情况下的调度应急方案.

On the basis of the achievements from former study, a risk analysis-based combined decision-making model for operation of flood control system was presented for the Yangtze River Basin with the indetermination of inflowing floods from different areas taken into account. In this model, the AR model (or hydrological model) was adopted for flood forecast. The variance of the error was estimated with the t distribution under a certain degree of confidence, and the upper and lower limits of the forecast error of the discharge hydrographs could be obtained. The calculated results of different water inflowing processes under a certain degree of confidence, which might occur in future, provided a basis for Bayes decision-making and risk analysis for real-time operation. The model changes the decision-making for stochastic operation into that for determinable operation, thus the risk analysis for combined operation can be realized. The advantage of the method is the small workload of calculation as compared with that of the general stochastic operation method, meanwhile, the model can calculate and preserve emergency operation scheme for large floods that might occur.