华北地区大气水分气候变化及其对水资源的影响

Variation of atmospheric water vapor with climate and its impact on water resources of North China

利用NCEP/NCAR1948～2003年分析格点资料,研究了华北地区大气水分气候的变化及其对水资源的影响.结果表明:华北地区大气中水汽含量自20世纪60年代初至80年代中期呈持续下降趋势,80年代中期以后略有回升,但幅度不大,90年代中期以后又呈下降趋势,在21世纪初期与历史最低水平接近;华北地区大气水汽含量与降水量及水资源总量的关系密切,大气水汽含量的减少趋势与降水量及水资源总量的变化一致.

The study was performed based on the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis grid data (2.5°×2.5°Lat/Lon) for 66 years (1948—2003). The results show that the atmospheric water vapor content continuously decreased from the early 1960s to the middle of 1980s, then a little increase occurred after the middle of 1980s, however after the middle of 1990s, the atmospheric water vapor content again decreased and was close to the lowest level in the history at the early 21^(th) century. It is also concluded that there are close relationships between the atmospheric water vapor content, the rainfall, and the total volume of water resources of North China, and that the decrease trend of water vapor content accords with the variation of rainfall and total volume of water resources.