柘溪水库月入库流量预报方案的建立与对比分析

Establishment and comparative analysis of forecast scheme of monthly inflow in Zhexi Reservoir

利用相关分析方法,对柘溪水库月入库流量与全球海温及27类气象因子的关系进行了分析研究.通过逐步回归,建立了3种类型的月入库流量预报模型,并进行了对比分析.研究结果表明:影响柘溪水库月径流量的主要因子有青藏高原西部西风带系统、西太平洋副热带高压和西南季风;前期海温对柘溪入库流量有重要影响,关键海区在北部印度洋和北赤道中西段.建议不同月份的预报可采用不同的预报模型,以期达到最好的效果.

An analysis was made on the relationship between the monthly inflow in the Zhexi Reservoir, the global sea temperature and 27 kinds of meteorological factors by use of the correlation analysis method. Three kinds of forecast models for monthly reservoir inflow were established by regression analysis. The comparison of the models developed and their applications showed that the west-wind belt system of the west Qingzang Plateau, the west Pacific Ocean subtropical high-pressure, and the southwest monsoon were the main factors affecting the monthly inflow in the Zhexi Reservoir, that the sea temperature at early stage had significant influences on the reservoir inflow, and that the key sea areas were north Indian Ocean and the middle and west sections of the north of the equator. It was also suggested that different models should be adopted in different months, so that good effect of prediction could be achieved.