江坪河水电站可能最大暴雨研究

Study on probable maximum storm at Jiangping River hydropower station

对1935年7月发生在长江中游的特大暴雨(其水汽入流路径距江坪河水流域中心经、纬度相差不到1°)移置的可能性和移置位置进行分析,并对其进行水汽放大和移置改正,最终推求出江坪河流域可能最大暴雨.同时考虑水汽因子和动力因子,采用当地暴雨法推求出可能最大暴雨,通过效率、水汽和风速放大推求可能最大暴雨,作为移置放大方法的佐证成果.

The '357' storm is an extraordinary storm occurring in Loushui River Basin along the Jiangping River of China, the center of the storm being less than 1° in longitude and latitude away from the center of the Jiangping River Basin. In this paper, a thorough analysis was performed of the probability and position of the storm transposition. By enlargement of the moisture and adjustment of the transposition of the '357' storm, the probable maximum storm was deduced for the Jiangping River Basin. The analysis of 34 heavy storms showed that if the local storm method was adopted to derive the probable maximum storm, both the moisture factor and dynamic factor should be taken into account. Furthermore, the probable maximum storm was also derived by enlargement of efficiency, moisture, and wind velocity, which could be used to verify the result by the method of storm transposition.