论中国网民发展趋势及影响因素

Net-users' Developing Tendency in China and the Formative Factors

随着经济的发展,我国网民不管是从总体数量还是在用户特征都将产生重大变化,影响网民发展的因素是多方面的,本文从宏观角度将影响因素分为两类:人口年龄增长因素和非年龄增长因素。以第五次人口普查数据和CNNIC统计数据为基础,利用三种数理统计模型从宏观的角度分析未来几年我国网民发展趋势及影响因素。

With the development of economy,our country's net-users have been enlarged enormously both in quantity and character.The formative factors result in the development of net-users are various.The thesis will classify the formative factors into two kinds from the point of macro-angle: age-growth of population and non-age-growth.Basing on the fifth population census and statistics of CNNIC,this thesis make use of three mathematics statistics models analyzing the general development trend of our country's net-users and the main factors affecting development of net-users from the macro-angle.