欧洲主要林产品生产、贸易分析及预测

Analysis and Forecast of Production and Trade of European Main Forestry Products

欧洲林产品贸易在世界林产品贸易中占有很重要的地位。该文首先对当前欧洲一些林业比较发达国家的林产品生产和贸易状况做了分析 ,并以 1 96 1— 2 0 0 2年欧洲 7种主要林产品的年产量、年进出口量的基本数据为依据 ,在对其进行加工、整理的基础上 ,将这些数据分别按照产量、进出口量和净进口量进行比较分析 ,以便更加明确地观察其生产、贸易的变化状况从而发现一些规律 ,并且对产生这些变化的原因进行了简要的归纳。

The trade of European forestry products plays a significant role in worldwide trade of forestry products. Through processing the basic data of annual production, the import and export of European seven major forestry products from 1961 to 2001, the paper analyses the situation of the production and trade of forestry products of some European countries advanced in forestry. It makes a clear observation of the production and trade of such products to find out their change rules and reasons, and uses a linear regression equation to forecast their quantity to be produced and traded in the future. It will offer China some clues in the trade of such products.