鲁西北地区耕地劳动力承载力的多情景模拟

Scenario Simulating on Labor Carrying Capacity of Arable Land in the Northwestern Shandong

根据已建立的最小劳均耕地面积、耕地劳动力承载力、耕地规模种植压力指数和耕地劳动力承载力指数的概念及模型[2],对鲁西北地区未来50年不同情景下的耕地劳动力承载力的可能变化进行了多情景模拟分析。结果表明:随着社会经济的发展,无论何种方案,鲁西北地区最小劳均耕地面积均呈增大趋势,而规模种植压力指数只在理想方案下呈逐渐降低态势,在不理想方案和适中方案下均呈升高趋势,且以不理想方案下提高的幅度较大;由2010年到2050年,耕地劳动力承载能力将逐渐降低,劳动力超载程度逐步加剧,农业劳动力剩余现象将十分严重。因此,要保障劳动生产率的提高和农民收入的增加,必须寻求有效转移剩余劳动力的途径,确保在一定的收入水平下,实现耕地数量与农业劳动力总量的动态平衡,从而消除压力。

According to the concepts of minimum per capita cultivated area required and index of growing area size pressure and labor carrying capacity of arable land put forward in another paper, the scenarios of labor carrying capacity of arable land in the northwestern Shandong are simulated under different schemes by changing natural resources and social economy and technological factors from 2000 to 2050 in this paper. By means of the scenarios simulating analysis, following conclusions are obtained: With the development of social economy, the minimum per capita cultivated area required tends to increase gradually under any circumstances. Meanwhile, the index of growing area size pressure will decrease gradually under the ideal condition and increase under the unsatisfactory and moderate conditions, especially, the increase is more significant under the unsatisfactory condition; Furthermore, the amounts of labor carrying capacity of arable land will decrease from 2000 to 2050. For example, cultivated land could carry 270.25×10~4 labor populations under moderate conditions in 2010, and about 13.77 per cent of the total labor populations need to be transferred. It could only carry 112.89×10~4 labor forces in 2050, and 26.65 per cent need to be transferred. On the other hand, all counties belong to high over loading region in 2050 under the unsatisfactory conditions, but the index of labor carrying capacity of arable land improved obviously under moderate conditions than that under the unsatisfactory conditions, about 47 per cent of the total counties belonging to high over loading region in 2050. Compared with the above-mentioned conditions, the index of labor carrying capacity of arable land are highest in the same period under ideal conditions, and tend to increase obviously. The high over loading regions only account for 5 per cent and the other counties all belong to margin regions. It is clear that, labor carrying capacity of arable land tends to decrease gradually, and the amount of surplus labor becomes larger and larger. Therefore, labor must be transferred to non-agricultural sectors in order to improve labor productivity, increase farmer's income and realize dynamic balance between the total cultivated land and agricultural labors.