2004年台湾地区选举的影响分析

On the Influences of the Regional Election in Taiwan

本文认为2004年台湾地区的选举对台湾的政局以及将来的发展、对两岸关系以及台美关系都将产生负面影响。这次选举不但再一次挑动了族群对立意识,而且“3·19枪击事件”可能会使暴力介入台湾政治成为一种趋势,恶化岛内政治和社会环境。从选举的结果来看,陈水扁执政表示台湾很可能继续走“渐进式台独”的路线,不断挑衅国际社会公认的一个中国的原则,使两岸关系改善的难度加大。而目前还没有结果的选举诉讼也将给台湾的政局带来许多不明朗的因素。

The regional election in Taiwan would exert a negative influence on its political situation and its relationship with the mainland and with US. The election has torn ethnic groups apart, and aroused antagonism among them. Moreover, ?3·19 shooting ?is likely to ignite a growing interference with political scene from violence, which will worsen the situation in Taiwan region. Chen Shuibian抯 success in maintaining his position indicates that he will continue his gradual independence policy, which will undermine the 揙ne China?Principle well-recognized by international community, making it hard to improve its relationship with the mainland. The political scene in Taiwan region is clouded by the election lawsuit which is still pending.