我国不同磷肥产品的横向动态景气度分析

Analysis of Dynamic Prosperity on Phosphate Fertilizer in China

以我国现有的过磷酸钙等7个主要磷肥品种近4年的产量为模型参数指标,采用横向动态景气度模型,计算我国磷肥行业不同磷肥品种的动态景气度,并进行态势分析.我国近年连续4年磷肥总产量指标大于0,呈现景气状态.各磷肥品种产量呈现不同景气状况,2001～2003年处于不景气状态的磷肥品种数逐年减少;磷酸二铵产量指标处于景气状态下降期,与磷肥产量增长相关度减弱.过磷酸钙、钙镁磷肥产量指标逐步增加,正处于不景气至景气的转折期.

Taken the data of China phosphate fertilizer output in the past 4 years as model parameter indexes,the dynamic prosperity index model is introduced to calculate the dynamic prosperities of such seven phosphate fertilizers as SSP,FCMP, TSP,NP,MAP,DAP and NPK,etc. further to analyzing their developing trends. Productive development potentials in China are evaluated.