是“城市化”还是“城镇”化——一个新型城市化道路的战略发展框架

URBANIZATION OR URBAN-TOWNSHIP-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT——A New Strategic Developmental Framework for Urbanization

对中国农村人口问题有两种不同的理论主张和政策导向 :一是城市化 ,二是城镇化。由于“城镇化”模型的基本结构是 :“城镇化” =“城市化” +“乡镇化” ,其框架所明含的“乡镇化”倾向必然存在下述显著弊端 :选择了不可能从根本上解决农民问题的农村化乡镇框架 ;将会对中国现代化进程中的农村人口压力产生短期缓解而长期困扰的不良后果 ;将会导致资源配置的浪费 ;将会导致后果严重的长期环境污染 ;违背了农村人口的最优化理性选择 ;乡镇企业存在和发展主要理由已经基本上不复存在。中国农村人口问题理性发展的战略框架是 :必须和只能走新型城市化道路 ;尽快理智而清晰地确立城市化的惟一发展战略 ;尽快建构“教育化 +城市化”的提升国民素质的社会发展框架 ;尽快把县级城市作为中国城市化发展战略的根本空间选择和主要社会载体。中国在这方面具有广阔的制度创新空间 ,应尽快通过制度现代化而开辟出一条农民市民化和人口现代化的制度通道。

There are two different theoretical approaches and policy orientations: urbanization and city-township-oriented development. The latter model has its structure as 'city-township-oriented development'= 'urbanization'+ 'township-oriented development'. The obvious defect with this model lies in the rural framework of township-oriented development which cannot totally solve the issue of farmers, leading naturally to the short-term easing but long-term troublesome consequence caused by the rural population expansion during the Chinese modernization process. The same would be true for the waste in resources arrangement, serious everlasting environmental pollution, alienation from the optimized rational choice of rural population and the non-existence of reasons for rural and township enterprises. So the strategic framework for rational development of Chinese rural population would be: a new type of urbanization route should be adopted; the only development strategy for urbanization should be rationally and clearly established; the social developmental framework should be sooner set up to promote the population quality on the model of 'education plus urbanization'; the county-level cities should be regarded as the only space choice and main social carrier for the realization of Chinese urbanization strategy.