1980-2050年的中国现代化进程:回顾与前瞻——一个经济学家的视角

China's Modernization from 1980 to 2050: Retrospective and Prospective-FromanEconomist's Perspective

按照“三步走”实现现代化的战略部署,我国已经实现了前两步,进入21世纪开始走第三步,2001～2020年的发展目标是全面建设小康社会。我国对全面建设小康社会的规划是:2020年国内生产总值比2000年翻两番;经济发展的基本走向为工业化、城市化、开放型经济;增进全体人民的福利;推进制度创新。中国的现代化要实现三个根本性的转变:经济体制的根本性转变,经济增长方式的根本性转变,从二元经济结构到现代社会经济结构的根本性转变。中国的现代化不仅是发展社会生产力,还包括精神文明建设和政治文明建设等各方面制度的改革和健全。中国经济具备持续增长的诸多有利条件,2020年以后,中国将按照适合国情的发展道路,逐步地从小康社会走向现代化。

China attained the objectives of the first two steps at the end of last century in its development strategy of realizing modernization in three steps and embarked on the third step on the threshold of the 21st century. The goal of development from 2001 to 2020 is to build a well-off society in anall-round way. The concrete objectives of which are: the GDP of the year 2000 will be quadrupled by 2020; the basic trend of economic development is industrialization, urbanization and the national economy will be more open and viable; the welfare of the people will be improved and institutional innovation will be promoted. Three fundamental transformations must be accomplished in the course of modernization: economic institution, the way of economic growth, and the economic structure (i. e. , from dual economic structure to modern socio-economic structure). Besides the development of productive forces, China's modernization also involves institutional reform and improvement such as ethical, cultural and political progress. There are a lot of favorable conditions for the Chinese economy to have a sustainable growth. After 2020 China will gradually move from a well-off society towards modernization in accordance with the national conditions.