人口增长和消费模式对海洋渔业资源影响的实证分析——以舟山为例

Case Study on Influence of Population Growth and Consumption Model on Marine Fishery Resources-with Zhoushan as the Example

现有研究文献显示,人口增长和消费变化是影响海洋渔业资源变化的重要动因。以舟山为例,在建立构建人口、消费与海洋渔业资源相关关系的理论框架基础上,动态地分析舟山人口增长和消费模式转换是如何影响其海洋渔业资源的。实证研究表明:①由收入水平提高所引起的消费方式转换比人口规模更直接地影响海洋渔业资源的动态变化;②尽管捕捞量持续增加,但由于捕捞强度的迅速提高,单位捕捞努力渔获量在显著下降,预示着舟山渔场渔业资源的逐渐衰减;③影响海洋渔业资源变化的动因不仅包括人口增长和消费模式变化,同时还要考虑经济增长模式、市场价格、政策引导以及当地居民行为等因素。

Current literature review shows that population growth and changes of consumption patterns are the major driving forces affecting marine fishery resources. Based on the theoretical framework of population, consumption and marine fishery resources, Zhoushan is taken as a case study to investigate how population and consumption components affect marine fishery resources in Zhoushan over time. The results indicates: 1) In contrast to population size, the change of consumption patterns caused by growth of income level has a more direct effect on the dynamic change of marine fisheries; 2) In spite of the fact that fishing outputs have been increasing over time, CPUE has witnessed a great decline accompanied with increase of fishing effort, implying that there will be a depletion of marine fisheries in Zhoushan Fishing Ground; and 3) driving forces affecting marine fisheries not only include population growth and consumption patterns, but also pattern of economic growth, market price, policy orientation, and behavior of local residents.