财产保险收入的动态预测

Development forecasting of property insurance

为克服目前保险业发展未来预测方法中,用非时变参数模型预测时变参数系统的状态造成的较大的预测误差,将时间序列分析与数理统计分析相结合,设计了新的动态预测模型,并获得了相对于传统的预测方法较高的预测精度。该模型为与保险业相似行业的发展预测提供了新思路。

In this paper, a new method for insurance development forecasting is put forward, which combines time series analysis with mathematical statistics analysis. The forecasting precision has proved to be much higher than that of traditional methods. It is also available to the forecasting of trades akin to insurance.