铁路客运提速的空间经济效果评价

Spatial impact of china's train network behind its upgrading : 1995—2002

以空间系统的视角,利用定量方法,对我国铁路运输行业的重大决策———客运提速政策实施的空间经济效果进行评价。结果显示,铁路客运系统在空间连通性上得到整体提升,以系统总旅行时间度量的提升效果达23%;不同城市从提速中获取的利益、消费者获取的消费剩余存在巨大差异,这表明提速引起的效果在空间上是不均衡的;空间效果的非均衡性仅反映在城市间,而不反映在地带间;北京、上海、广州的全国性枢纽地位得到进一步提升;铁路提速引起的潜在社会经济效应是"空间极化"。

Since 1995 Chinese railway sector has upgraded the interurban train network for a few times by raising the interurban train speed and rearranging the train time table. It has led to a dramatic change on accessibility and time cost. In this paper, the spatial impact of evolution of China's railway passenger system from 1995 to 2002 are estimated systematically based on modeling methods. The results show that, comparing 2002's situation with 1995's, a series of spatial economic effects come into being. First, the accessibilities of most cities have been improved obviously. Second, the average interurban travel time by train dropped from 32.57 hours in 1995 to 25.05 hours in 2002, the total travel time cost saved 23% theoretically. Third, the consumer's surplus attains to near 800 million hours or $2 billion given all passengers use the shortest road. Fourth, the upgrading train network drives potentially further polarization effects on spatial economic activities in the coming time. Fifth, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou strengthen their positions further as hubs in the railway passenger traffic system.