滑坡预报模型和预报判据

Models and Criteria of Landslide Prediction

滑坡时间预报的核心是预报模型和预报判据的建立。本文通过查阅大量资料,总结了滑坡预报中的多种预报模型和预报判据,重点对其适用性进行了分析研究。为了提高滑坡的预报水平,本文认为滑坡预报必须建立在深入研究滑坡类型、滑坡特征、变形特点和形成机制的基础上,以监测资料为依据,将滑坡预报理论模型、预报判据以及根据斜坡的宏观变形破坏迹象和前兆信息等几者有机地结合起来,建立滑坡预报的综合信息预报方法。

Prediction models and criteria are key factors in time prediction of landslides. In this paper, based on a mass of data, many kinds of prediction models and criteria are summarized. Their applicability is analyzed in detail. It is thought that, in order to improve the level of landslide prediction, landslide prediction should be based on the thorough study on landslide types, landslide characteristics and deformation feature and mechanism. The integrated method of landslide prediction should be worked out on the basis of observation data and by combining the theoretical prediction model, criteria and macroscopic deformation evidence with precursory information.