能源消费与气候关系的中美比较研究

Relations of Energy Consumption to Climate: A Comparative Study Between China and America

应用多项式模型把气候耗能量从能源消费总量中分离出来,用统计分析的方法探讨了中国和美国气候耗能量与气候因子之间的关系及其变化。研究表明:温度是美国近50年来影响气候耗能量的主要气候因子,中国从20世纪50年代到80年代初,旱涝灾害一直是影响中国气候耗能量的主要气候因子,它们之间存在有明显的线性相关关系,自20世纪80年代初以来,随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,旱涝灾害对气候耗能量的影响明显减弱,温度对气候耗能量的影响逐渐增强,如果仅考虑气候耗能量,目前中国的能源消费变化正处于由气象灾害驱动型向温度驱动型的过渡时期。

In this thesis, the climatic energy consumption is separated from the total energy consumption by polynomial model and the method for statistical analysis is used to explore the relationship between the climatic energy consumption and the climatic factors and its changes in China and America. It shows that temperature has drived the climate energy consumption in the recent 50 years in America; while in China the disaster of drought and flood is the main factor that affects climatic energy consumption from the 1950's to the 1980's. There is an obvious linear correlation between climatic energy consumption and the disaster of drought and flood. Since the early 1980's, with the development of economy and the improvement of people's living level, the disaster of drought and flood has obviously less effect on the climatic energy consumption, but the influence of temperature on the climatic energy consumption has become gradually strong. Considering only the climatic energy consumption , the energy consumption in China now is changing from the type driven by climatic disaster to that driven by temperature.