摘要
本文根据SARS流行病的特点,建立了带有潜伏期及终身免疫的SARS流行病SEIR模型及参数辩识系统。论证了该类控制模型的主要数学性质以及系统的流不变性和弱不变性。根据世界卫生组织、中国卫生部以及香港卫生署等公布的疫情数据辨识了SEIR模型中的参数,数值模拟结果表明了模型、算法的正确性和有效性。
A dynamic SEIR model of SARS epidemic with latent period and a model of its parameter identification are established in this paper. The main mathematical properties of such control model, flow-invariance of system (S, f (y, v)) and weak-invariance of system (S, F (y, V_(ad))) are investigated and proved. The numerical simulations are done based on the data announced by world Health Organization, China Health Department and Hong Kong Health Department. The results show that our model and algorithm are accuracy and effectiveness.
出处
《工程数学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2003年第8期39-44,共6页
Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目资助(编号19871009)
