南通市耕地与经济发展和人口的动态关系

The Dynamic Relationshipbetween Cultivated Land and Economic Developmentas Well as Population in Nantong

本文运用多元数理统计方法建立以耕地面积为函数,以人口、GDP、固定资产投资为自变量的多元非线性回归方程的数学模型,通过引入弹性系数对南通市耕地面积、人口、GDP、固定资产投资20多年来的数据进行分析,得出该市耕地面积的减少主要取决人口的增长,与GDP的增长、固定资产投资的增加依赖性不大。运用统计理论对数据进行分阶段分析,得到该市经济发展主要依靠加大固定资产的投资和增加单位耕地的经济效益。

From the periodically statistical analysis of over 20 years data of cultivated area , population, GDP and investment of fixed assets in Nantong, it is gained that the development of Nantong economic mainly depends on increasing investment of fixed assets and improving the economic performance of per unit yield. Then, by using cultivated area as the function and population, GDP, and investment of fixed assets as independent variable, we found the mathematical modeling of nonlinear multivariate regression equations in the way of pluralistic mathematical theory.