区域环境质量与经济发展关系模型研究

MODELING REGIONAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT QUALITY

环境库兹涅茨曲线是目前环境经济领域被广泛引用的一个计量模型。针对当前人们大多通过实际观测资料 ,利用回归分析 ,估计环境质量转折点 ,而理论研究相对较少的现状 ,从社会福利最大化角度出发 ,通过设定物品消费偏好指数 ,建立了一个两物品模型。通过数学推理 ,首先推导出了区域环境最佳投资水平 ,在此基础上从理论上证明了环境库兹涅茨曲线存在的依据 ,以及在环境质量最低点和环境质量发生根本性好转的转折点的社会总投资水平。研究表明 ,环境质量演化过程曲线取决于社会经济发展状况 ,它与非环境物品生产函数和排污生产函数的技术参数 ,居民收入水平以及对环境物品和非环境物品的消费偏好 ,国民收入分配政策等有关 ,而非仅仅与经济增长状况有关。因此 ,在经济发展过程中适时地调整产业结构和国民收入分配政策、采用新技术、提倡合理的消费观念等是加速环境质量演化过程的重要措施。

Environmental Kuznets Curve is at present popular in the field of environmental economics. From the time when Grossman and Krueger used this conception,many regional data were analyzed with the method of regression analyses backed it up,but there are only a few theoretical data to testify the curve so far,so that it is hard to estimate when the turning point of environment quality will come. This paper established two-products model from the point of making the maximum social welfare. By using the index of consumption preference,the optimum environmental investment was then found and then the essential conditions for Environmental Kuznets Curve. At last conclusions were drawn in this paper. First,there are two turning points: one corresponding to the worst environmental quality,and the other with no pollutant damage beyond. Second,environmental quality is controlled by regional economic development,not only by economic growth,because all the parameters of non-environmental production function,pollution-emission function and pollution-controlling function are controlled not by economic growth,but by economic development. Therefore,in order to maximize social welfare,and to achieve earlier turning points,it is to important to adjust industry structure,to improve the policy of national income distribution,and to advocate rational consumption.