地震危险性分析的综合评定法

The Overall Merits in the Seismic Risk Analysis

由于当前地震科学水平的限制,不同的地震学专家对同一断裂带地震复发概率的估计常常是不同的。为了较科学、直观地综合评定专家意见,本文采用了加权平均法。以反映专家意见的一致性。同时,本文采用了加权均方差法处理专家意见。以反映专家意见的差异性。最后,利用上述方法分析了鲜水河断裂带地震危险性。

Because of the limitation of the earthquake science level at present,the seismologists' estimations to the earthquake recurrence probability of the same fault zone are often different.In this paper, in order to synthesize and appraise the experts' ideas scientificly and directly, the method of weighted mean is used, so that the identity of the experts' ideas is reflected. In the mean time, the method of weighted mean square deviation is used to deal with the experts' ideas, so that the differance of the experts ideas can be reflected. In the end, the methods above are used to analyse the seismic risk of Xianshui River fault zone.