中国西部地区未来气候变化趋势预测

A Prediction of Trend of the Future Climate Change in the Western China

用中国科学院大气物理研究所的全球环流耦合模式 (IAP/LASGGOALS) ,对中国西部地区由于CO2 含量增加引起的未来气候变化进行了模拟预测分析。预测CO2 含量每年以 1 %速度递增 ,对此进行了控制试验和扰动试验两个长期积分 ,并用它们的差值来表示中国西部地区的气候变化。结果表明 ,CO2 增加以后 ,在初始阶段平均温度、降水和湿度变化不大 ,随着CO2 含量的增加 ,中国西部地区温度、降水及湿度均呈显著的增加趋势 ,且比全球增加大得多。到 2 0 50年全球温度相对于现在增加 1 5℃ ,而中国西部地区温度升高在 1 2～2 2℃ ,其中最大增温区出现在青藏高原附近 ;西南地区降水将增加 2 0 0mm以上 ,比湿增加最大 ,达 0 8gkg- 1 以上 ,新疆西部和西北部地区降水减少 50mm左右 ,平均降水增加1 5% ,整个西部地区气候变暖变湿。

The general circulation coupled model (IAP/LASG GOALS) developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics has been used to simulate the future climate change in the western China due to the CO 2 increasing. In this paper we carried out two simulations, one for the control run and another for perturbation run. The difference between the two runs denotes the climate change. Results indicate that there is almost no change of the average air temperature, precipitation and the humidity at the first ten years. With the increasing of CO 2 the air temperature, precipitation and humidity increase in the western China have the obvious increasing and much more than that in global. In 2050s the global average air temperature and precipitation increase 1.5 ℃ and 1.5% respectively. While in the western China the air temperature increases between 1.2 ℃ and 2.2 ℃. The maximum warming occurs at around the Tibet an Plateau, the maximum precipitation occurs in Southwest China with 15% increasing and the humidity with 0.7 g kg -1 increasing. The climate of the western China in the 21st century will be warmer and wetter.