卒中患者便秘影响因素分析及函数预测模型

An analysis of risk factors and establishment of functional prognostic models for constipation in acute stroke patients

目的 调查卒中患者便秘的发生情况及其影响因素,并建立便秘发生的函数预测模型。 方法 对2003年11月至2004年3月收治的64例卒中患者进行便秘的前瞻性调查,并对随访资料进行生存分析;建立便秘发生的函数预测模型及便秘是否发生的判别函数,并对资料进行回代检验。结果卒中患者便秘的发生率为60.93％(39／64),影响卒中患者发生便秘的主要因素是年龄和发病1周时总的生活能力状态的评分。卒中患者便秘发生的模型为h(t,X)=h0(t)exp(0.84X1+0.03X2);便秘发生判别函数为Y(1)=-27.67+4.84 X1+0.30X2。 结论 卒中患者发病后10 d内便秘的发生率较高,年龄较大且生活能力状态较低的卒中患者比较容易发生便秘。

Objective To investigate the occurrence and risk factors of constipation in acute stroke patients and to set up a functional prognostic model. Methods A prospective study of constipation was performed to investigate the 64 cases of acute stroke patients who were hospitalized from November 2003 to March 2004 in the department of neurology and a follow-up study was carried out with Kaplan-Meier methods for survival analysis, Cox regression for multiple factor analysis and discriminate analysis for setting up the functional prognostic models. Results Constipation occurred in 60. 93% (39/64) of the patients. Cox regression showed that the incidence of constipation was strongly related to age and functional status of patients in the first week assessed by Modified Rankin Scale. The prognostic model was h(t, X) =ho(t)exp (0. 84X1 +0. 03X2); and the current discriminative equation was Y(1) = 27. 67 +4. 84X1 +0. 30X2. Conclusion The occurrence of constipation in stroke patients is higher within ten days after stroke. The elder stroke patients with low functional status are prone to bringing about constipation.