未来海平面上升对江苏沿海水利工程的影响

IMPACT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON WATER PROJECTS IN COASTAL AREA OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

研究探讨表明,未来海平面上升将导致江苏沿海水利工程本身风险性的显著增大,表现为工程遭受破坏程度的增强和受到破坏次数的指数性增多。海面上升还严重影响苏北沿海水利工程效用的发挥,表现为海堤防护标准的降低,抗御风暴潮的能力减少,以及沿海挡潮闸排水能力的降低,加剧这一地区的洪涝灾害。最后,为减轻未来海平面上升对苏北沿海水利工程造成的不利影响,提出了一些看法和建议。

Future sea level rise is an insidious and most serious hazard in the world. A case study onthe effects of future sea level rise on water projects in the coastal area of Jiangsu Provinceshows that sea level rise could strengthen destructive tdal power on these projects and increaseexponentially the probability of occurrence of designed highest tide level, which undermine thesafety of the projects.Future sea level rise can also overload the normal protective function of coastal water projects, such as protective dikes and drainage sluiceways capacity. An estimation of the drainage variations of Sheyang River sluice wal due to sea level rise shows that sea level rise reduces drainage capacity and avialable drainage time. A 50 cm rise of sea level can cause a drainage decrease of 20%-30% through the Sheyang River sluiceway pertide period; a 100 cm rise can decrease the drainage from 40% to 50%, and a150 cm rise can cut down the darinage from 65% to 75%. The reduction of drainage capacity can cause more damage from waterlogging and flooding in the area.The last part of the paper gives suggestions and countermeasures for coping with the impact of sea level rise on coastal water projects of Jiangsu Province.