替代迁移:解决都市低生育水平人口问题的途径——以天津市为例

Replacement Migration under Low-fertility Urban Population——A case Study on Tianjin

中国大城市的人口已经经历了较长时期的低生育率 ,同时又有大量的常住流动人口和迁移人口。本文在阐述替代迁移概念和研究方法的基础上 ,以天津为实证 ,分析了无迁移、保持总人口峰值、维持劳动年龄人口峰值和潜在供养比最大值四种情况下的替代迁移人口的替代效应和作用 ,认为适度的替代迁移人口是解决长期低生育水平人口“综合症”的有效办法。

Replacement migration refers to the international migration that would be needed to of set declines in the size of population, the population of working ages, as well as to offset the overall aging of a population. The population in large cities not only has gone through low-fertility for long time in China, but also has huge migrants and flowing population. We use the methodology of replacement migration to make a case study on the population of Tianjin, which is one the largest cities in China.