统计推算燃烧室出口热点温度的优化方法

AN OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR STATISTICAL ASCERTAINMENT OF THE MOST PROBABLE PEAK TEMPERATURE AT COMBUSTOR EXIT

根据统计学原理 ,采用优化方法 ,对燃烧室在某一状态下出口截面温度的多点测量值进行数据处理 ,确定其最佳的威布尔分布方程 ,并进而导出该状态下出口热点温度的推算公式。结果表明 ,燃烧室出口截面上最大概率的最高温度值总是高于多点测量中测到的最高值。因此 ,通常把后者视同真实最高值 (热点温度 )是不恰当的。认识这一事实具有理论上和实践上的重要意义。

With a limited number of exit temperature measurements of a gas turbine combustion chamber,it is most unlikely to take a measurement just at the correct position of the real hot spot.On the other hand,numerical prediction of the hot spot temperature so far is impracticable.In this paper,on the basis of principles of statistical analysis,a very simple and effective two dimensional optimization method is employed to process the multi measured temperature data taken at an annular combustion chamber exit under a specified operating condition.As expected,an optimum fitting Weibull equation is obtained,which can meet the preset accuracy requirement of evaluation by applying least square method,and then a calculation formula is derived,which can be used to ascertain the most probable exit peak temperature value with confidence.A numerical example shows that the most probable exit peak temperature(namely the real hot spot temperature)is higher to a certain extent than the maximum value measured.Some other potential applications of this method are also metioned very briefly.