旅游地生命周期曲线模拟的初步研究——Logistic曲线模型方法的应用

Study on the Application of Logistic Curve Simulating Tourism Destination Lifecycle

旅游地生命周期理论已经提出了很多年 ,这一理论的研究仍然在发展 ,尤其是对旅游地生命周期曲线的模拟做过很多有益的尝试。该文运用Logistic曲线对旅游地生命周期的发展阶段进行模拟 ,并应用StellaⅡ语言建立了模型 ,代入一定的数据进行处理 ,模拟旅游产品生命周期曲线 ,对这一曲线的主要影响因素进行了讨论。得出旅游市场预测的非线性规律 。

Since Butler issued his famous theory of destination lifecycle model,many scholars had researched this model.These researchers described varieties of lifecycle paths,and developed Butler’s theory.This paper applies the pattern of Logistic curve to simulate every stage of tourism product lifecycle,and uses the StellaⅡlanguage,a computer language for ecological study,to form the formulas and draw the curve.At last,the primary factors impact the tourism product lifecycle,and possible varieties of the Logistic curve are analyzed.