货币流通速度的再认识——对中国1993—2003年虚拟经济与实体经济关系的分析

Reconsideration of the Velocity of Money ——A analysis of the relationship between fictitious economy and real economy from 1993 to 2003 in China

经济虚拟化的发展和货币需求函数的不稳定性 ,使传统货币流通速度公式的前提条件不复存在。本文根据变化发展的客观经济环境重建货币流通速度公式 ,结合货币循环流模型提出货币流通速度的“两分法” :虚拟经济和实体经济货币流通速度。在对我国 1 993— 2 0 0 3年虚拟经济与实体经济关系进行量化分析后发现 ,2 0 0 0年以来两者协调性较差 ,原因在于进出虚拟经济的资金出现大幅波动。对此本文结合我国实际 ,根据新货币流通速度公式设计了一些长短期资金流量监控指标。

With the development of fictitious economy and the instability of money demand, the velocity of money is not a constant any more. So we first build a new formula of money velocity on the base of the changed economic environment, and then advance “dichotomy” about the velocity of money according to the flow of money circulation model. After having analyzed the facts in China from 1993 to 2003, we find that the relationship between fictitious economy and real economy has not been in harmony since 2000. The reason is that the great fluctuation of fund in fictitious economy. At last we design long and short indexes to supervise the flow of fund on the base of the new formula of money velocity.