中国代际核算体系的建立和对养老保险制度改革的研究

Generational Accounting in China and Pension Reform from The Perspective of Generational Accounting

代际核算方法是 2 0世纪 90年代出现的分析财政问题和代际平衡问题的新方法。本文建立了中国的第一套代际核算体系 ,并利用代际核算体系分析了中国的养老保险体系。考虑到中国的实际情况 ,本文对传统的代际核算体系进行了以下扩展 :首先 ,传统的代际核算体系将人口按照年龄和性别分类 ,而我国无论是税收体系还是养老保险体系 ,城乡差别都比较大 ,因此我们将人口按照年龄、性别和城乡三个维度分开 ;第二 ,由于我国的社会保障体系不是全民覆盖 ,因此我们在考虑社会保障体系的缴费和支付时 ,需要考虑覆盖面的变化。核算结果表明我国城乡不平衡很严重 ,城镇人口到 55岁 (其中女性到 50岁 )时代际帐户就为负值 ,而农村人口要到 85岁 (其中女性到 90岁 )代际帐户才为负值。我国的代际不平衡也较为严重 ,按照不同的生产率增长率和贴现率的假设 ,我国未来代的代际帐户值比 2 0 0 2年新出生一代高 66%到 1 0 2 %。而如果我们采用延长退休年龄的政策 ,代际不平衡情况可以得到很大改善 ,未来代的代际帐户值比 2 0 0 2年新生代高 43 %到 81 %。而如果不对机关事业单位的养老保险制度进行改革 ,代际不平衡状况将更加严重 ,未来代的代际帐户值比现存各代高出 78%到 1 1 5%。

The paper presents the first set of generational accounts for china and analyze pension reform in China from the view of generational accounting. Taking into account special situation in China, we extend the standard method in follow ways: firstly, not only do we distinguish male and female, but also urban and rural cohorts in each generation. Secondly, we have to consider the change of coverage scale, while doing projection of contribution and benefit of social security. Our findings suggest that there is a serious imbalance between urban and rural people. The generational accounts will become negative at age 50 and older for urban people. But for rural people the age is 85 and older. Our findings also show unless policy toward existing generations is substantially altered, future generations will face an excessively heavy fiscal burden. For reasonable growth and interest rate assumptions, the difference between 2002 newborns and those born after 2002 ranges from 66 to 102 percent. If we adopt retirement age extension plan, the situation will be improved greatly. The generational imbalance will decrease to 43 to 81 percent. If we don't reform the pension system of institutions and state organs, the generational imbalance will increase to 78 to 115 percent.